Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 7.605213e-05 0.000091 0.000106 0.000124 0.000144 0.000165 0.000189
2025-02-23 5.721186e-05 0.000076 0.000097 0.000124 0.000154 0.000189 0.000230
2025-03-02 4.509835e-05 0.000065 0.000089 0.000120 0.000157 0.000200 0.000253
2025-03-09 3.563320e-05 0.000056 0.000082 0.000116 0.000159 0.000211 0.000276
2025-03-16 2.987779e-05 0.000051 0.000078 0.000116 0.000165 0.000224 0.000301
2025-03-23 2.543706e-05 0.000046 0.000075 0.000116 0.000171 0.000239 0.000327
2025-03-30 2.137303e-05 0.000042 0.000072 0.000115 0.000175 0.000250 0.000349
2025-04-06 1.736095e-05 0.000037 0.000067 0.000112 0.000175 0.000256 0.000365
2025-04-13 1.507712e-05 0.000035 0.000066 0.000113 0.000181 0.000270 0.000390
2025-04-20 1.180616e-05 0.000030 0.000060 0.000108 0.000178 0.000272 0.000400
2025-04-27 9.969903e-06 0.000028 0.000058 0.000108 0.000182 0.000282 0.000421
2025-05-04 8.409720e-06 0.000025 0.000056 0.000107 0.000185 0.000291 0.000441
2025-05-11 7.509670e-06 0.000024 0.000056 0.000112 0.000196 0.000313 0.000478
2025-05-18 6.249602e-06 0.000023 0.000055 0.000112 0.000202 0.000328 0.000508
2025-05-25 4.587327e-06 0.000019 0.000050 0.000108 0.000200 0.000331 0.000521
2025-06-01 3.439761e-06 0.000017 0.000047 0.000105 0.000200 0.000337 0.000539
2025-06-08 2.687964e-06 0.000015 0.000045 0.000105 0.000203 0.000348 0.000562
2025-06-15 2.173958e-06 0.000014 0.000044 0.000105 0.000209 0.000362 0.000590
2025-06-22 1.640090e-06 0.000013 0.000042 0.000104 0.000211 0.000371 0.000612
2025-06-29 1.133818e-06 0.000011 0.000040 0.000101 0.000210 0.000376 0.000627
2025-07-06 8.853182e-07 0.000010 0.000039 0.000102 0.000216 0.000390 0.000655
2025-07-13 5.253187e-07 0.000008 0.000035 0.000098 0.000212 0.000389 0.000663
2025-07-20 3.622490e-07 0.000008 0.000034 0.000097 0.000215 0.000399 0.000686